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Are we in a bubble, is the Mississauga and GTA Real Estate market about to crash?
Toronto, Mississauga and GTA Real Estate
market observations and predictions for 2025 and beyond!
Go straight to my latest Predictions
This page will give you some of my insights and predictions for the upcoming
year. The advice contained herein is not guaranteed, but will give you
an idea of my personal thoughts from my 30+ years experience in real
estate.
Conclusions that I draw from this and
other sources and my predictions for future years
These
are my observations of the current and future GTA and Mississauga Real
Estate Marketplace.
Many
are predicting a "market crash"
Many
have been predicting we are in a bubble in the GTA for about the past
2 years or so. Certainly the market is overheated. There
are many reasons for this.
-
Lack
of supply and low interest rates have pushed up prices to record
highs.
-
There
is uneasiness in the economy, especially the USA and global areas.
-
The
underlying economy doesn't support the rise in the market, we've
drawn the people into the market due to low rates.
-
Consumer
confidence is lower and so is the supply of listings, people are
feeling a little less confident to move up, so this is the reason
that the number of listings is down and has been down since 2009.
-
Once
the job market and Europe and USA economies pick up then consumer
confidence will improve and then they'll put more homes on the
market and we should have a more balanced market.
The
condo market is the area that I see softening a little over the next
couple of year, many new buildings coming on stream and this may create
a bit of a glut of condos on the market - prices for condos are already
softening. Once rates begin to rise, probably not until late
next year, first time buyers will not be able to buy as much as they
are now and the market should adjust somewhat.
This
is what I see for the next 6 months or so:
-
Prices
will rise in the next few months due to high demand and low supply.
-
Ownership
should remain flat and fewer first time buyers on the market as
the rates increase along with more listings thus slower price
growth.
-
There
are considerable opportunities to purchase for long term price
growth in some of the outlying areas, such as Brampton, Milton,
Burlington and north Oakville. This would be similar to what
we have seen in Mississauga with price increases from the mid 90's
to 2010 or so.
-
I
feel the condominium investor
should be very cautious as we may see a pullback in prices which
will help stabilize the marketplace.
-
Thus,
I don't see any "crash" in the marketplace, just a softening of
prices, but not at least until the 3rd or 4th quarter this year.
I
have been uneasy about the marketplace since about 2002 and we continue
to see year over year price increases. The average price
has increased for 17 years in a row, see
the graph here and here,
this makes me a little uneasy, but the fundamentals of the marketplace
and the economy are far different compared to any time in the past.
I
hope this helps you with your real
estate decisions. You will have to make your own decision
based upon your personal situation and how you feel about the marketplace,
I know it's not easy.
Mark
- As of July 21, 2009, one day after the 40th anniversary of those famous words, "One small step for a man, one giant leap for mankind" here we sit in Canada with extremely low
inflation, almost negative inflation, called deflation, relatively low unemployment, almost all time low interest rates and
a reasonably strong economy here in the GTA. The US is still wailing form their
sub-prime lending crisis and the world economy continues to limp along and it appears that it will last
another 1 to 2 years. November 2008 was a US election and Obama won, injected optimism and new positive feelings into the US situation and he is doing things to rectify things in the US, but this will take time.
Historically, our real estate
market in the Mississauga, Brampton and GTA peaks beginning
about the end of the March break and ending about the
end of April. See the historical
seasonal trends here. Given the pent-up demand
in our marketplace, the fact that listing inventories
are down, we could see a shift of the spring market
and our market may be very strong in early 2008. I
can see this happening, so if you are thinking of selling
in the spring, you may be wise to get on the market
earlier rather than later to capitalize on the early
market strength.
So, if you
are thinking of selling and buying a homes this year,
should you buy or sell first? I've
had many clients purchase before they sell. I
just want you to have all the information so you can make
the best decision for yourself and your family. You
may read more about buying
or selling first here
If you would
like to discuss issues like this or other questions you may have, please
email me at anytime .
Read what I predicted last year at this time!
I hope this helps a little to
answer your questions and give you a little insight
into my thoughts on the real estate market. I will post this on my
blog for others to see. Any comments
from you are always welcome and would be appreciated.
Mississauga MLS Real Estate Properties & MLS.CA Homes for Sale | All Pages including Mississauga Real Estate Blog all maintained by info@mississauga4sale.com Copyright © A. Mark Argentino, P.Eng., Broker, RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage, Mississauga, Ontario, Canada L5M 7A1 (905) 828-3434 First created - Tuesday, July 16th, 1996 at 3:48:41 PM - Last Update of this website: Tuesday, April 9, 2024 7:24 AM
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