PROVINCIAL CURRENT TRENDS
September 2007
Western provinces powering Canada's jobs bonanza
August's employment report showed that overall job gains for the first eight months
of the year were up an estimated 232,000. The unemployment rate held at its lowest
level since 1974 and wage growth continued to firm. The average hourly wage rate
for permanent workers was up 3.8% year-over-year in August, marking the fastest
pace of increase in a year and the fifth consecutive month of solid gains.
Tight labour markets provide yet another piece of evidence that Canada's domestic
economy is still on firm footing despite some weakness in job markets now evident
in the United States (chart 1). Healthy job growth, an historically low unemployment
rate and the recent acceleration in wage growth highlights the fact that Canada's
economy is operating above its capacity limits.
The strength in Canada's headline national number is largely the result of the ongoing
strength in western job markets. Alberta, British Columbia and Saskatchewan
in that order are the clear leaders on the labour market front (chart 2), clocking in
the strongest pace of job gains, the lowest unemployment rates and the fastestgrowing
labour forces.
There is also notable strength coming from Quebec's labour market, which has
added 71,000 jobs since the start of the year. Ontario's job growth is slowing relative
to the national average and its unemployment rate has edged up from last year's 6%
low but, overall, still remains healthy. Job conditions are mixed in Atlantic Canada.
Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland are tracking decent job growth. Nova
Scotia's job growth has recently slowed down, while New Brunswick started 2007 on
a slow note, but its job growth has recently started to pick up.
British Columbia
Labour markets in the province are still tight,with the year-over-year pace of job growth setting a healthy 3.2% pace
and the unemployment rate holding just above 4%. Wage growth
slowed down earlier in the year but has recently firmed, with two consecutive
months of decent gains. The province accounted for roughly 20% of
Canada's total job gains reported in the first eight months of the year. Jobs were split
roughly equally between the goods sector and the service sector. The construction,
finance, insurance, real estate, and leasing sectors have been the biggest contributors
to provincial employment so far in 2007.
Alberta
The province still leads all provinces in all key job marketindicators, including job gains, unemployment rate, labour force growth
and wage gains. Hourly wages in Alberta are running at a healthy clip
but are down from last year's 7% pace and are now tracking at about
5.3% so far in 2007 a pace that continues to significantly skew the national rate.
Alberta's labour force continues to expand to accommodate the growing demand for
workers. Net interprovincial migration, although down from last year's third-quarter
peak at 24,535 migrants, is still the strongest in the country and continues to
attract workers from right across Canada. Despite accounting for only 13% of
national GDP, the province has been the single biggest contributor to job gains
this year, with 96,000 jobs created in the first eight months of the year compared
to the same period last year.
Saskatchewan
Job markets picked up momentum in the latterpart of 2006 and early in 2007, but have since started to cool off.
The provincial unemployment rate is still one of the lowest in the
country but has been trending upward in the last six months. The
unemployment rate bottomed out in March at 3.8% but has since climbed just
over a full percent to reach 4.9% in August. Wages, however, are still growing
at a healthy clip. The recent softness showing up in job markets is coming from
the service sector, while the goods sector has actually picked up momentum. In
fact, the construction sector was the only major contributor to job gains in
August, adding roughly 3,800 jobs. Housing shortages are fuelling this recent
surge in construction employment.
Manitoba
The pace of annual job growth in Manitoba has been
holding just above 1% so far this year and unemployment is tracking
at 4.5%. Hourly wages in Manitoba have accelerated for the
last five consecutive months and ran at a 5% pace in the first eight
months of the year compared to a year ago. With inflation at 2.2%, this has left
room for solid real wage gains to be realized in the province. Job growth so far
this year has been largely concentrated in the construction sector and some
service sector industries, including finance, insurance, real estate, education
services, and public administration.
Ontario
Job markets in Ontario are lagging the national average
but still remain in healthy territory. The goods sector is still in
decline as the agriculture, forestry and manufacturing sectors continue
to shed jobs. Service-sector strength, however, still trumps
the losses in the goods sector. Wage growth decelerated substantially in the
early part of 2007 but has since picked up in the last four months. But, wages are
still dragging on the national average, with Ontario and Quebec being the only
two provinces where wage growth is below the national rate. With inflation
running at a mild 1.6% this year, real wage gains are still being realized but only
by a slim margin.
Quebec
Job growth picked up in the early part of 2007 and theunemployment rate dropped from 8% last year to a record low of
6.9% in July. The gains so far this year have been concentrated in
the service sector. The tightness evident in Quebec's labour market,
however, has not flowed into wage growth. Like Ontario, wages are growing
at a pace below the national average. Average hourly earnings were up 2%
in the first eight months of the year compared to the same period a year ago,
while the national pace is a full percentage point higher at 3%.
New Brunswick
After a slow start in the first quarter of 2007,
the province's labour markets picked up, reaching a healthy 3.7%
year-over-year pace in August. Its unemployment rate has also
been trending down. Wage growth has speeded up substantially
in the last few months and New Brunswick has the third fastest pace among
Source: Statistics Canada, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Canadian Real Estate Association, RBC Economics Research
Provincial current economic indicators
Latest month available, year-over-year % change, not seasonally adjusted unless marked S.A.
the provinces this year. The goods sector has led the gains, with
the utilities, construction and manufacturing sectors accounting
for 90% of the job growth in the sector in the first eight months of
the year. The service sector has shed roughly 3,000 jobs during
this period.
Nova Scotia
Labour markets in the province are
tighter than they were last year when it experienced
an outright contraction in jobs. However, this year
there have been consecutive monthly declines in
overall employment since April. The unemployment rate has risen
a full percentage point, reaching 8.9% in August. Wages, however,
are still running at a healthy clip. Employment in the goods sector
has been mixed. Forestry sector employment remains in decline,
while manufacturing employment appears to have stabilized. The
service sector contributed 70% of the job growth in the first eight
months of the year compared to a year ago, but has recently softened
as trade sector employment has weakened.
Prince Edward Island
The support in the Island's
job market so far this year has emanated chiefly
from the service sector. A broad range of industries contributed to
this gain, including finance, insurance and real estate, healthcare
and the accommodation sector. Jobs in the goods sector are down
so far this year, with noted weakness in agriculture and construction.
More declines in construction sector employment are anticipated as
the construction industry continues to wind down after a strong run.
The unemployment rate is just above 10%, one percentage point
below last year's rate, and wage growth is coming in at a 4% pace so
far this year compared to the same period a year ago.
Newfoundland
The unemployment rate appeared
to be on a downward trajectory in the early part of 2007
as job gains picked up it dropped from its January
high of 15.4% down to a low of 12.9% in May. It has
since ticked up a few notches as job growth has eased but is still
signalling a tighter market than in 2006. Wages are growing at a
healthy clip in line with the nationwide pace and are running at more
than double the rate of inflation, translating into real wage gains.
Healthy wage growth has proved to be a decent support for the
province's retail sector, which is tracking at a 10% pace in 2007 compared
to last year.
Courtesy of RBC Economics
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