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Toronto, Mississauga and GTA Real Estate market observations and predictions for 2011 and 2010
Go straight to my 2011 Predictions 2010 Real Estate Market Predicitons for the GTA

This page will give you some of my insights and predictions for the upcoming year.  The advice contained herein is not guarnateed, but will give you an idea of my personal thoughts from my 23 years experience in real estate.

More words of wisdom for 2010. Go straight to my 2010 Predictions

My current market thoughts and observations :

Historically, our real estate market in the Mississauga, Brampton and GTA peaks beginning about the end of the March break and ending about the end of April.  See the historical seasonal trends here.  Given the pent-up demand in our marketplace, the fact that listing inventories are down, we could see a shift of the spring market and our market may be very strong in early 2008.  I can see this happening, so if you are thinking of selling in the spring, you may be wise to get on the market earlier rather than later to capitalize on the early market strength.

This is what I predicted in 2008 for 2008

Mark's Predictions for 2007

Conclusions that I draw from this and other sources and my predictions for 2010

Mark's Crystal Ball for 2010

This is what I predict for 2010 in real estate, interest rates and more!

So here we are again, at the end of another year, actually the end of a decade and the beginning of a new year.  Every year at this time we can look back and reflect on what has happened in the past year with certainty.  Also at this time of year this is the time that we try and peer into the future and predict what will happen with far less certainty.  In real estate it's very critical to try and predict the future because so much is relying on it.
It takes quite a bit of time to condense my thoughts and observations into this section of predictions for 2010.  Part of the reason is that I want to be as accurate as possible.  As well, I know that many people will read this page and rely on some of the predictions contained herein.  Therefore, I want to give as good advice as possible, advice that is realistic and yet insightful.
Real estate is one of the few things in our lives that tends to increase in value year after year after year.  There is no certainty with this increase, but it sure has seemed certain over the past 15 years.  Our year over year average single family residential price has increased every year since 1985, except the fall of 2008, including this year.  Don't believe me, see the graph here:
There are some, many in fact that are predicting that we in the GTA and especially BC are sitting at the peak and prices are about to crash.  Garth Turner is one person who is predicting that prices are almost guaranteed to fall in 2010  I don't agree with him and don't feel that our area, Mississauga and the GTA will fall in the next year.
What do we know with certainty for the future?  We know the following is almost guaranteed to happen in the Mississauga and GTA real estate marketplace:
  • Interest rates will increase in 2010, the Bank of Canada is currently stating rates will increase in mid 2010 - this will put downward pressure on prices after rates increase, but will cause many buyers to buy before the rates increase and anticipation of the increase in rates
  • there will be a shortage of listings for at least January and maybe into February, this is a near certainty based upon the past 22 years for January and early February, not many people list their homes at these times - this will cause upward pressure on prices in the fist quarter of 2010
  • HST will come into effect July 1, 2010 and this will increase the cost when selling your home and to a lesser extent increase the cost to the buyers, this will put slight downward pressure on prices
This is what we know with less certainty:
  • the US real estate recovery seems to be chugging along, not quick, slow but sure
  • the US and global economy will improve in 2010
  • people may perceive that the HST will causes prices to increase once it comes into effect and try to save some money before July 1st and this could cause a mini boom in our market in the late spring of 2010
Due to the fall in late 2008, the average price in 2009 compared to 2008 is up about 12%.  We are up about the same percentage comparing 2007 to 2009  This is what I predicted in January for 2009  http://www.mississauga4sale.com/Toronto-GTA-Real-Estate-Market-Predictions-2009.htm#2009  When I read the predictions I made back in January for 2009 it makes me think that maybe I should go into the prediction business, more than 3/4 of the things I predicted came true!  I was wrong on Gold and wrong on Gasoline prices, otherwise my predictions were quite close.
  • These are my predictions for 2010 below and also online at this link: http://www.mississauga4sale.com/Toronto-GTA-Real-Estate-Market-Predictions-2010.htm#2010
  • I predict that our prices will increase about 4 to 6% in 2010 with some softening in our market when the Bank of Canada increases rates in the middle of 2010, once the Olympics end in the first quarter of 2010 and the 'dreaded' HST comes into affect July 1st of 2010
  • Mortgage rates will increase beginning about July of this year, the bank prime rate as of January 1, 2010 is 0.25% and I predict by year end it will be at 1.00% to 1.50%  This means that current mortgage interest rates will increase by about 1.25% to 2% over what they currently are.  This may sound excessive, but I firmly believe that our economy will bustle this year and increased rates will be necessary to calm things down a little, plus the banks will want to gouge a little in light of increasing prime rates.  They often do this when rates are increasing as they can get away with it with little backlash.
  • I still believe you should go short term on your mortgage, read more here about why I feel this way:  http://www.mississauga4sale.com/Lock-In-Short-Term-Long-Term-Mortgage.htm
  • We live in a very vibrant, growth oriented area of North America with a very diverse economy and culture.  People seem to want to work hard and improve upon their personal and financial situation and almost everyone I meet is employed and optimistic about the future.  This is good for the local economy and our future.
  • No matter what happens, as long as you continue to work hard, save 10% of your gross income, watch what you spend, don't get into too much debt that you can't handle it should you find yourself with a a job for a few months, then you should be able to slowly and surely achieve financial independence. 
  • The condo market will continue to surge, it's affordable and desirable
  • Bungalow style homes will become more desirable, (they currently are very desirable), as our population age increases
  • Barrel of oil will be $100 at end of year and gasoline will be $1.10 and gold will be $1100 per ounce at end of 2010
  • Once again, beware the emotions of the marketplace and stick to your long range goals , currently I believe we are in the optimism/excitement phase so things may get really hot this spring in the market.
  • I still subscribe to all the values and principles that I've written about in the past on this page below. 
  • I am a very optimistic person and always believe that I can do better by reading and doing things every day that contributes to my long term goals.  I always set high but attainable goals and often come close to reaching my goals and even if I fall short, I've surpassed what I have done in the past.  I subscribe to many newsletters that preach optimism and growth and these help me stay sharp and continue to learn.  Every day I seem to learn something new, so at least I'm growing.  You can read some of the ideas that I subscribe to and believe at this page:  http://www.mississauga4sale.com/Motivation-Success-Ten-Scrolls.htm
That's about it for now, keep to your plan invest in real estate for the long term, you cannot go wrong.
I wish you a very Happy New Year and all the best to you and your family in 2010


My predictions for 2009

So, if you are thinking of selling and buying a homes this year, should you buy or sell first?  I've had many clients purchase before they sell.  I just want you to have all the information so you can make the best decision for yourself and your family.  You may read more about buying or selling first here

I wish you much success, good health and happiness in 2008 and always!  Powered by MarkArgentino

Read more about my 2010 predictions at my blog

Past Issues of TREB Market Watch for Toronto Real Estate

If you would like to discuss issues like this or other questions you may have, please email me at anytime .

Read what I predicted last year at this time!

I hope this helps a little to answer your questions and give you a little insight into my thoughts on 2008.  I will post this on my blog for others to see.  Any comments from you are always welcome and would be appreciated.

Mark's signature


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